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Václav Klaus in Vienna: Europe’s Future in Times of Geopolitical Shifts

English Pages, 26. 1. 2026

I have to admit that I hesitated to speak here this morning, because the topic seemed to me beyond my capacity and capability, but I know that David Ungar-Klein wouldn’t accept any excuse from me. I am, therefore, ready to make a few comments on this topic. I can’t promise a coherent speech or an authoritative statement. 

1.         I am not a futurologist, and don’t want to be one either. I prefer discussing and analysing the trends and tendencies we experience, which means the past and the present. Futurology, so popular these days, is usually nothing more that a product of wishful thinking – either naively positively utopian or pessimistically negative or nihilistic. I find it more meaningful to focus our attention on describing and understanding current trends than on speculating about hypothetical visions of the future. 

2.         We are supposed to talk here now about Europe’s future in times of geopolitical shifts. I am, however, convinced that the fate of Europe will be much more influenced by our internal developments than by any foreseeable geopolitical shifts. Our weaknesses or strengths will be decisive. I will, nevertheless, allow myself to make one experiment in forecasting: if we continue to function and develop the way we have in the last years and decades, we will have no future, or better to say, we will become an increasingly irrelevant part of the world. 

3.         The currently dominant geopolitical shift in the world, which has been going on for years already, is usually described as a move from unipolarity to a different system of geopolitical arrangement. Let’s accept that unipolarity and the American hegemony of the past is over. Today’s chaotic and for most of us in many respects unexpected and unwelcome behaviour of this superpower is the consequence of that. It is a threatening development for small countries such as the Czech Republic and Austria which is hosting this gathering. 

This is nothing new. Something similar has happened many times in human history – the old hegemon tries to maintain its power and privileged position and behaves less quietly than in the past. The relevant question is how long this interim period will take and how deep and destabilizing its meddling in world affairs will be. In this respect, I don’t allow myself to make strong forecasts.  It will depend on the varying distribution of power in the world. My guess is that this interim period will continue during the rest of my lifetime, which, of course, doesn’t say much. My era is over. I don’t intend to step outside myself and to take pains to become artificially intelligent.

One thing which will influence this length of time is the strength of the old hegemon who surprised us by seeking to gain Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Greenland and at the same time to get the Peace Nobel Prize. 

Looking at it from the other side, based on my recent conversation with a high-ranking Chinese official, it seems to me that China wants to accelerate its rise to the top. Other rapidly growing large countries have similar ambitions. We may be surprised. 

4.         We were supposed to talk here about Europe, but I have a problem to speak about Europe in the same way one can speak about other big world players. Europe is different. Europe is a continent. It is neither a country, nor a state, nor an empire, nor any other kind of standard, well-defined political entities. 

The European Union is not such an entity either. The EU is neither an authentic nor a naturally evolved, step by step created conglomerate of countries. It is an artificial construct without any democratic legitimacy, which makes it inevitably weak. It doesn’t directly represent the citizens of European countries. Its existence is derived, not original. Due to it, Europe can’t have a real policy (or politics).

5.         The EU is, of course, trying to make policy. Instead of directing its activity toward what I would call public goods at a continental level (in another terminology, to take care of externalities as seen from the point of view of individual European countries), it tries to be involved in everything, to centralize almost everything. It attempts to control things that are public goods at state or local levels, and private goods as well. By promoting ideologies such as environmentalism, genderism, multiculturalism, and globalism, it tries to dictate the lives of individuals in details. By doing that, it undermines the substance of human freedom and of democracy.

The EU – as an exponent, if not an instrument, of these ideologies – fundamentally undermines the economic performance of European states, makes them uncompetitive, and makes Europe increasingly dependent and irrelevant. Such a Europe will be like a straw in the wind and will not be taken seriously by the rest of the world. It will, therefore, be vulnerable to all kinds of geopolitical shifts. 

6.         Is there any chance to change this? I am not very optimistic. It would ask for a fundamental change of EU procedures, of its legislation and institutions. It would ask for its radical transformation. In the former communist countries, we knew that we needed more than a Gorbachev-style perestroika. Perestroika was a dream of achieving a radical improvement in performance without changing the substance of the system. It failed. And all kinds of European perestroika will fail as well. 

7.         It is often proclaimed that we are moving from unilateralism to multilateralism these days. I don’t think so. As we are in a German-speaking country, it is appropriate and may be helpful to quote Carl Schmitt and his concept of “Großräume und Einflußsphären”. 

The latest Trump’s moves in Venezuela (and his threats to other regions and countries) suggest that he doesn’t want a “regelbasierte Ordnung, sondern ein Kartell von Imperien”. That’s the reason why he speaks about the Donroe Doctrine, which is his version of the original Monroe Doctrine. We should be aware of that. The emerging Donroe Doctrine asks for something fundamentally different than for multilateralism. I cannot take a “Kartell von Imperien” (a cartel of empires) as multilateralism.

Those were my few humble comments. 

Václav Klaus, 23rd Vienna Congress, Vienna, January 26, 2026